Scenario-Based Imagining of Alternative Futures: Thinking about the Future of Governance in Tehran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Futures Studies, Faculty of Governance., University of Tehran ,Tehran, Iran

2 Professor, Department of Public Administration, Faculty of Management , University of Tehran , Tehran, Iran

3 PhD Graduate in Futures Studies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

4 Assistant Professor, Department of Futures Studies, Faculty of Governance, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

5 PhD Candidate in Public Policy, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Introduction: It is very difficult to think and make decisions about the future of the city as a combination of complex and uncertain systems. This complexity increases significantly when it comes to the long-term future of urban environments. Such challenges highlight the necessity of future-thinking and alternative thinking in the process of urban management and planning and show the need for a deeper understanding of alternative futures for the effective management of urban environments. The aim of this article is to identify and explain the alternative futures of Tehran; for this purpose, we have tried to study alternative future images of Tehran in an archetypal form of "growth, collapse, disciplined society and transformed society" using "Dator’s Four Generic Alternative Futures" method.
Methodology: This study employs the "Four Generic Alternative Futures" method to identify and elaborate on alternative futures for the city of Tehran. This method involves developing scenarios based on the identification of key trends and drivers impacting future of Tehran. The developed scenarios include "Capital Business Center", "Crossing the fate of Ray", "Tehran Family" and "Tehran investigators ". Each scenario has a unique narrative that outlines a distinct vision for the city's future.
Results: Among the 87 trends and factors identified in the research process, 14 factors were selected by experts as the key variables of the future scenarios of Tehran city. In the meantime, citizens' trust in governing institutions will have the greatest impact on the future governance of Tehran. Each of the four scenarios, depending on its specific context, shows different states of key trends and reveals the consequences of realizing the desired future.
Discussion: The use of future-oriented approaches by managers and urban planners in the era of rapid changes, with growing complexity and increasing uncertainty, can lead to the achievement of coherent, comprehensive and integrated decision-making systems. These systems focus on greater stakeholder participation and sustainability of solutions. At the same time, future-oriented approaches can provide a suitable field for management and collaborative planning. The collaborative process of future research increases the possibility of successful implementation of these solutions by helping to develop successful solutions and the sense of ownership of the citizens towards the proposed solutions. Also, using these approaches through facilitating communication between key stakeholders and networking of knowledge resources increases the possibility of achieving preferred perspectives related to urban futures.
It is reminded that many futurists try to build a vision of the future by challenging the official futures and common trends, as well as identifying and promoting some normative issues by using normative approaches. The focus of normative approaches on predetermined values has caused many examples of preferred futures to be created without paying enough attention to alternative futures. This inadequacy of the normative approaches has caused the Manawa school to use the method of "four general alternative futures" as a precursor to the development of preferred futures. Based on this approach, the current research has tried to develop diverse images in the form of four relevant scenarios, without falling into the trap of uncalculated idealism, each of which can be a basis for forward-looking design, policy making, and strategizing.
Conclusion: This research emphasizes the importance of understanding the dynamics of the contemporary world and the double complexities of metropolitan areas. By considering different scenarios and adopting a holistic approach, we can hope for better and more effective governance and overcome the complexities of development. The use of scenario-based approaches by urban managers and planners in metropolises such as Tehran facilitates facing complexities and makes it more possible to achieve good governance. Achieving the images of the future of Tehran city, while identifying the most important challenges and opportunities hidden in alternative futures, provides a basis for policy making in the field of urban governance and optimal administration of Tehran city. This forward-looking approach is essential to address the multifaceted issues facing cities with changing landscapes.

Highlights

The population of Tehran city in the horizon of 2026 with the natural growth of its population was predicted to be equal to 8.7 million people; But the population of Tehran city in 2016 exceeded the predicted population for 2026.

Out of the 14 key factors influencing the future of Tehran, 7 are of a political-governmental nature and 3 are economic in nature

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Urban Planning Knowledge
Volume 8, Issue 1
2024
Pages 124-147

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History

  • Receive Date: 04 April 2024
  • Revise Date: 06 August 2023
  • Accept Date: 23 August 2023

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