عنوان مقاله [English]
Objective: The aim of this study is to try to identify the variables and scenarios for the future of smart urban growth in Semnan.
Method: In this research, by organizing and summarizing the opinions of the citizens of Dar ol-marhame( Semnan) and twenty-two experts in futures studies, urban planning, urban planning, urban management and economics, and the available documents And by analyzing and involving the opinions of research authors through a catalytic conceptual model of data and output And it has been done in four stages and then the analytical scenarios of possible, probable and desirable futures (scenario making the best possible and desirable option for Semnan smart growth) have been created.
Findings: The findings of this study show that "pedestrian-centric encouragement with emphasis on multiple modes of transport with a final weight factor of 0.698 and a scenario impact factor of 18, such as the sidewalk of Imam Rah Street (traditional market) and reconstruction (reconstruction) Life in the central parts, worn-out and historical textures such as; Sheriff's hose, Old Fortress, Tadyon House) is the most important variable for the future progress of Semnan intelligent growth, which makes the city system stable. Also, the most important variables that have the greatest impact on other variables of intelligent growth in Semnan are: directing development to existing neighborhoods (Infill development) with a final weight coefficient of 0.636 and a scenario impact factor of 16, and Combined use and preservation of the traditional structure of the city's neighborhoods.
Conclusion: Finally, futuristic scenarios of smart growth of this city were determined That Slow City Indicator with the main sub-index of "sidewalks and pedestrian axis" and especially "garden construction" in Semnan, such as Kandeneh, Ney Kijeh, and Anjila roadways, in order to develop sustainable and strengthen tourism and creative branding of Semnan, as the strongest The scenario was selected as the expected, desirable and preferred scenario.
Keyword: Structural analysis of urban smart growth, scenario building, Dar ol-marhame, Possible future and preferred future (expected and unexpected)