تبیین الگوی نظری تحقق شهر هوشمند در افق 1415 در چارچوب آینده‌نگاری راهبردی با استفاده از FCM و Mental Modeler

Introduction: The smart city is one of the issues that have been the focus of governments, organizations related to urban management, knowledge-based and technology companies, universities and research institutes, and the public sector in recent years. Although studies in the field of smart cities have been conducted topically in one dimension at the national or international level for nearly two decades, a study considering all dimensions of a smart city simultaneously has received less attention. To create an integrated outlook on all aspects of urbanization, policymakers have presented models for developing and maintaining cities based on modern technologies, which have been introduced as smart cities. The confrontation of ultra-modern cities with the city of the industrial age (contemporary) is another urban problem in the modern age because the needs and issues in this age differ from the conditions in which the industrial age approaches were developed (UN, 2018). Therefore, according to the growth of urbanization worldwide, it is very important to find solutions to meet the challenges of urbanization. One of these solutions is the concept of sustainable smart cities (Ibrahim et al., 2018) (Nastaran et al., 2018). Unlike most foresight studies, this research did not seek to extract strategies for realizing a smart city. Still, he is trying to turn it into a theoretical model to create a line of thought in policymakers by relying on the potential scenarios of smart cities in Iran in the horizon of 1415 by the upstream documents (the document of the province in the horizon of 1415 and the document of the national model in the horizon of 1444).
Methodology: In this research, combined methods have been used to present the model of realizing smart cities, and the fuzzy cognitive mapping matrix is the basis of the analysis and explanation of the experimental model of this research. For this purpose, the meta-synthesis method was used after studying the literature and developing a theoretical framework to identify the key indicators of Rasht's smart city management. By evaluating and analyzing the sensitivity of the effects of the scenarios and the status of each driver on how to change the state of the key obstacles to the realization of the smart city of Rasht, an optimal model of the state of realization of the smart city can be presented.
Results: The outputs show that in the category of obstacles to the realization of a smart city, the elements "non-observance of the principle of justice, balance, and equilibrium in ecological, social, and economic dimensions (lack of optimal management of urban resources)," "commodification of land" and " The lack of balanced development and unbridled urban growth and the emergence of problematic tissues" have received the most effects from other elements of the model with the intensity of 8.58, 7.92 and 7.65, respectively. In terms of impact based on the results, the two uncertainties of "increasing the process of immigrating cities" and "instant production and delivery" have been the most influential elements.
Discussion: The results of this survey show that "lack of optimal health management" and "commodification" of land are two obstacles that have a great impact on other barriers to the realization of a smart city, and even the obstacle of "not observing the principle of justice, Balance, and Balance in ecological, social and economic dimensions (lack of optimal management of urban resources) is affected by these two obstacles. Also, the review of the analysis shows that among the uncertainties, "increasing the trend of Rasht's immigration" and "use of smart technologies in promoting clean and sustainable transportation" are mentioned as prerequisites. This problem can be expressed in such a way that to realize a smart city based on the fuzzy recognition map, the perspective of urban management must be completely changed, and the main focus of planning should be on the optimal management of the health sector and solving the problem of commoditization of land. The challenge of waste management is an old pain in the city of Rasht, and with the influx of tourists without complying with environmental standards, it burdens the lives of the people of this city, and the Saravan area has become a hazard in the city of Rasht. The commodity view of land has also led to the fact that many areas of the Caspian region are rural, and the bargaining power is low due to the lack of a strong economic base and the lack of suitable conditions similar to the Caspian climate in other parts of the country. Land and property are not balanced. Also, the inheritance law, the division of land between heirs, and the reduction of the production level provide the basis for the sale of separate lands. If the prevailing trend is not managed, considering the developments that are taking place in the country, especially in the southern and central regions of Iran, as a result of climate change, the future of the Caspian region's ecosystem, especially in Gilan province and Rasht city, will be severely threatened. It can create fragile conditions for this region to realize a smart city. With the help and use of sensitivity analysis of obstacles in all scenarios, it is determined that all obstacles will decrease in the first and second scenarios and increase in the third scenario. The status of the main obstacles to realizing Rasht's smart city in different scenarios revealed that in all scenarios, "commodification of land" experiences the greatest reduction except in the third scenario. In addition to this factor, the two obstacles, "infrastructure supply crisis, energy wastage and unstable transportation," and "politicization and the existence of legal and functional differences in urban management," will have the greatest reduction in all scenarios except scenario 3. Among all the obstacles, the factor "change in business patterns and its impact on the economic system of the city" is the only one that experiences a significant reduction in all scenarios.
On the other hand, the obstacle "non-observance of the principle of justice, balance, and equilibrium in ecological, social and economic dimensions (lack of optimal management of urban resources)" experiences a very small reduction in almost all scenarios. This problem shows that this barrier has a low sensitivity to different scenarios and practically no reaction to various scenarios. Considering that this obstacle is of great importance in the subject literature, it seems necessary to formulate and explain specific tasks to reduce it and improve the realization of the smart city of Rasht. At this stage, all the main elements of realizing the smart city of Rasht were determined, and the consequences' severity and impact were analyzed and explained.
Conclusion: According to the obtained results and based on the intensity of the relationships and the power of influence between them, the experimental model of the future realization of the smart city of Rasht has been created. Then, based on the degree of centrality and importance of the factors for each of the scenarios, the above model is examined and evaluated to determine what effect each of the drivers in the scenarios will have on the obstacles to the realization of the smart city. Considering that the predetermined factors will always be static, the changes in the level of barriers to the realization of the smart city will only be formed as a result of the changes in the drivers of the uncertainty type. Critical uncertainties cause the number of barriers to realizing a smart city to change and, in some cases, decrease and, in other cases, increase, which can be considered system results. According to the comparison of the changes in the obstacles to the realization of the smart city in different scenarios, a comprehensive analysis can be extracted regarding the realization of the smart city, and a theoretical model can be developed based on the average changes in the obstacles according to all scenarios.
Based on the findings of this research, to realize the management of the smart city of Rasht, it is necessary to establish the governance fields of people institutions in the city and the city to become global by relying on its branding capabilities, such as the creative city of gastronomy and should be introduced more and more to provide sustainable development in the UNESCO creative cities network and also by taking advantage of successful models in planned migration and sustainable urban development of Rasht and surrounding satellite towns. Centralized structures to create sustainable development can be considered a solution to achieve integrated, sustainable, and intelligent management in Rasht. This research intends to provide a clear answer to this question by presenting a systematic model and using methods based on strategic foresight. To answer the main question of the research, first by reviewing the research conducted on smart city management and analyzing the content of the study conducted in the field of establishing smart cities and exploring the research conducted at the international and national level, the key related factors They were identified with the management of smart cities based on thematic literature and conducted researches. The degree of centrality of the factor of lack of optimal health management and commodification of land more than other factors and the impact of changing business patterns and its effect on the economic system of the city and the lack of optimal management of the health sector have the most impact among the obstacles. In this way, in the middle of the model presented in this research, urban management obstacles are noted, considering the degree of centrality and influence. In the two outer layers of the figure, predetermined elements and drivers with uncertainty are placed. In the first layer, there are the factors and aspects of the internal context that occur in the urban management ecosystem and have the ability to be planned by the urban management factors, and in the second layer, which is the external context, there are elements that are influenced by the factors between are international and outside the control of the city management. The above model was created based on the intensity of relationships and the power of influence between them. Then, based on the degree of centrality and importance of the factors for each scenario, the above model is examined and evaluated to determine what effect each of the drivers in the scenarios will have on the obstacles of smart city management. Considering that the predetermined factors will always be static, the changes in the level of barriers to the realization of the smart city will only be formed as a result of the changes in the drivers of the uncertainty type. Critical uncertainties cause the number of barriers to realizing a smart city to change and, in some cases, decrease and, in other cases, increase, which can be considered system results. According to the comparison of the changes in the obstacles to the realization of the smart city in different scenarios, a comprehensive analysis can be extracted regarding the realization of the smart city, and a theoretical model can be developed based on the average changes in the obstacles according to all scenarios.