شناسایی عوامل کلیدی و پیشران‌های آمایشی توسعه استان آذربایجان شرقی با رویکرد آینده پژوهی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، گروه ژئومورفولوژی، دانشکده برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.

2 دانشجوی دکتری برنامه‌ریزی آمایش سرزمین، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.

10.22124/upk.2025.29399.1997

چکیده

چکیده
بیان مسئله: استان آذربایجان شرقی، به دلیل موقعیت ژئوپلیتیکی در منطقه شمال غرب ایران و ویژگـی مرکزیت نسبی برای منطقـه قفقـاز و سـایر کشـورهای همسـایه ایـران، از اهمیـت زیـادی در برنامه‌ریزی‌های توسعه برخوردار است.
هدف: عوامل کلیدی و پیشران‌های توسعه استان اذربایجان شرقی با رویکرد آینده پژوهی شناسایی و معرفی می‌شوند.
روش: این تحقیق از لحاظ ماهیت، تحلیلی و اکتشافی و از لحاظ هدف، کاربردی است. در این پژوهش، از مدل‌های ترکیبی کمی و کیفی بهره گرفته شده‌است. برای جمع‌آوری اطلاعات داده‌های مورد نیاز از روش مرور نظامند منابع، مصاحبه، پنل خبرگی و برای تکمیل پرسشنامه اثرات متقاطع از روش دلفی در دو مرحله استفاده شده است
یافته‌ها: نشان‌ می‌دهند که از بین 52 پیشران مورد بررسی برای توسعه استان آذربایجان شرقی، 10 پیشران شامل جذب سرمایه گذاری داخلی و خارجی، فضای کسب و کار، امنیت و ثبات اقتصادی و کنترل تورم، حکمرانی خوب، هوش مصنوعی، تعاملات اقتصادی بین المللی و موضوع تحریم‌ها، توسعه بازرگانی فراملی، ملی و منطقه ای، کاهش تصدی گری دولتی و افزایش اختیارات بخش خصوصی، توسعه صنعتی و معدنی ( خودروسازی، الکترونیک و صنایع پایین دست معدن مس و طلا)، زنجیره ارزش و تولید به ترتیب بیشترین میزان اثرگذاری مستقیم بر سایر متغیرها را داشته‌است.
نتیجه‌گیری: نتایج کلی پژوهش نشان دادند؛ عوامل «جذب سرمایه گذاری از بازار سرمایه و داخلی و خارجی» از حوزه اقتصادی- کشاورزی/ صنعت/ بازرگان؛ عامل «فضای کسب و کار» و «امنیت و ثبات اقتصادی، و کنترل تورم» از حوزه فرابخشی/ گردشگری متغیرهای تأثیرگذار و نقش اساسی در تحقق ارتقای سطح توسعه استان آذربایجان شرقی در اینده خواهند داشت. این نتایج نشان می دهد با تمرکز بر چند عامل مهم بعنوان پیشران های توسعه میتوان چرخ توسعه استان را روانتر و کارآمدتر به حرکت درآورد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Identifying Key Spatial bade keyFactors and drivers of Development of East Azerbaijan Province with a Futures Studies Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyed Asadallah Hejazi 1
  • Ali Faraji 2
1 Associate Professor, Department of Geomorphology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
2 PhD student in spatial planning; University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The appropriate effectiveness of today's decision-making is related to understanding the future situation and how to face it; in the field of planning, especially urban and regional planning or national and regional development plans, addressing the future and its planning is an inseparable part of the planning process. In most cases, addressing the future by relying on forecasting and analyzing trends has created countless problems in implementing plans. These problems often arise from not paying attention to the effects of emerging or emerging technologies on human life or neglecting the driving forces and key factors in the development process, causing their gradual weakening and ultimately their negative impact on the entire system. Today, futures research approaches in the field of planning emphasize finding key factors and drivers of development in the planning space so that the planner, having the levers of control and management of the future, can address the desired architecture of the future. Therefore, explaining the factors affecting the development of East Azerbaijan Province, relying on the science of futures studies, plays a significant role in the comprehensive development and progress of this city. In this regard, the main question of the present study is: What are the key factors affecting the development of East Azerbaijan Province with a futures studies approach?
The variable of investment attraction from the capital market, domestic and foreign, business environment and economic security and stability, and inflation control has the highest direct impact on the development of East Azerbaijan province. These factors are also the most important factor in terms of indirect impact on the development process of the province. Therefore, paying attention to these three variables in the development process of the province is essential for planners and managers. The indicators affecting the development strategy of the province are in five economic dimensions - agriculture/industry/commerce, cross-sectoral/tourism, infrastructure, social and cultural, and environmental. In this study, all 52 factors affecting the physical development strategy of the province were entered into the software and a short indicator was considered for each.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Regional development
  • futures studies
  • key drivers
  • Foresight

مراجع

Alinezhad, Z., Najafi, S. M. B., Fathollahi, J., & Zali, N. (2022). Identifying the drivers of knowledge-based agriculture with emphasis on technology development (Case study of Kermanshah province). Journal of Iran Futures Studies, 6(2), 273-303. (In Persian) https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.63652423.1400.6.2.11.1
Angst, F., Aeschlimann, A., & Angst, J. (2017). The minimal clinically important difference raised the significance of outcome effects above the statistical level, with methodological implications for future studies. Journal of clinical epidemiology, 82, 128-136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2016.11.016
Appio, F. P., Frattini, F., Petruzzelli, A. M., & Neirotti, P. (2021). Digital transformation and innovation management: A synthesis of existing research and an agenda for future studies. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 38(1), 4-20.  https://doi.org/10.1111/jpim.12562
Azari, M., Fanni, Z, Kozegarkaleji, L., Tavakolinia, J., & Heydari, A. (2021). Investigating the role of driving forces in land use changes and the spatial evolution of the city with a futurology approach ( Case study District 12 of Tehran). MJSP, 25 (2), 121-144. (In Persian) http://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.16059689.1400.25.2.6.3
Battistella, C., De Toni, A. F., & Pillon, R (2016). Inter-Organisational Technology/ Knowledge Transfer: A Framework from the Critical Literature Review. The Journal of Technology Transfer, 41, 1195-1234. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10961-015-9418-7
Beheshti, M. B. , Behboudi, D. , Zali, N. , & Ahmadzadeh Deljavan, F. (2020). Analysis and Identification of Key Factors and Drivers Affecting Integrated Water Resources Management based on Futures Studies Approach (Case Study of Tabriz County). Iranian journal of Ecohydrology, 7(1), 59-76. https://doi.org/10.22059/ije.2020.286464.1176
Bell, W. (2003). Foundations of Futures Studies: History, Purposes, and Knowledge (1). New Brunswick. NJ: Transaction Publishers.
Cooke, F. L. (2009). A decade of transformation of HRM in China: A review of literature and suggestions for future studies. Asia Pacific Journal of human resources, 47(1), 6-40. https://doi.org/10.1177/1038411108099288
Edmonds, J., Zhao, X., Patel, P., Sheng, D., Lochner, E., Bertram, C., ... & Waldhoff, S. (2025). Sensitivity of future regional and global energy markets and macroeconomic activity to a hypothetical global energy market disruption. iScience, 28(1). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2024.111449
Fleisher, Belton M. Li, Haizheng. Zhao, Min Qiang (2008). Human capital, economic growth, and regional inequality in china. Bonn: Institute for the study of Labor. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/34981/1/573334765.pdf
Hashemzadeh, F. , & Zali, N. (2020). Functional Assessment of Development Orientations with Emphasis on Regional Equality (Case Study: West Azerbaijan Province). Geographical Urban Planning Research (GUPR), 8(4), 861-888. (In Persian) https://doi.org/10.22059/jurbangeo.2020.302993.1292
Hosseini, S. A., Yaghfoori, H., & hadeiani, Z. (2020). Investigation and analysis of factors affecting the development of physical-spatial structure of Qom city with a futures research approach. Geography and Development, 18(61), 247-276. (In Persian) https://doi.org/10.22111/jGDIJ.2021.5853
Jetter, A. J., & Kok, K. (2014). Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for futures studies—A methodological assessment of concepts and methods. Futures, 61, 45-57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2014.05.002
Kalantari- Banadaki, S. Z. , Abbasi-Shavazi, M. J. , & Abooee Ardakan, M. (2021). The Identification and Analysis of the Strategic Variables Effective on the Future of Yazd Province Through a Structural Analysis Approach. Town and Country Planning, 13(2), 567-586. (In Persian) https://doi.org/10.22059/jtcp.2021.322631.670216
Khaleghi, A., & Majnouni- Toutakhane, A. (2021). The Future Study of Rural Development Planning (Case Study: Varzaqan County). Regional Planning, 11(42), 137-153. (In Persian) https://doi.org/10.30495/jzpm.2021.3937
Ko, B. K., & Yang, J. S. (2024). Developments and challenges of foresight evaluation: Review of the past 30 years of research. Futures, 155, 103291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103291
Lumeng, L. I. U., & Jianguo, W. U. (2022). Scenario analysis in urban ecosystem services research: Progress, prospects, and implications for urban planning and management. Landscape and Urban Planning, 224, 104433.‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2022.104433
Mahmud, J. (2011). City foresight and development planning case study: Implementation of scenario planning in formulation of the Bulungan development plan. Futures, 43(7), 697-706. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.05.011
Marodin, G. A., & Saurin, T. A. (2013). Implementing lean production systems: research areas and opportunities for future studies. International Journal of Production Research, 51(22), 6663-6680. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2013.826831
Martelli, A. (2014). Models of Scenario Building and Planning: Facing Uncertainty and Complexity.Springer.
Martin, B. R., & Johnston, R. (1999). Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system: experiences in Britain, Australia, and New Zealand. Technological forecasting and social change, 60(1), 37-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(98)00022-5
Melnikovas, A. (2018). Towards an Explicit Research Methodology: Adapting Research Onion Model for Futures Studies. Journal of futures Studies, 23(2). https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.201812_23(2).0003
Minkkinen, M. (2020). Theories in futures studies: Examining the theory base of the futures field in light of survey results. World Futures Review, 12(1), 12-25. https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756719887717
Mohammadzadeh, A., Pourezzat, A., Rezayan Ghayehbashi, A., & Pirannejad, A. (2020). Imaginary of Citizen Participation with the Aim of Improving Urban Governance (Case Study: Tehran). Urban Planning Knowledge, 4(4), 117-135. (In Persian) https://doi.org/10.22124/upk.2020.16986.1507
Moqimi, A. (2015). Future epistemology of theoretical approaches to urban planning, architecture and building industry. Journal of Urban and Rural Management, 14 (38), 75-104. (In Persian) URL: http://ijurm.imo.org.ir/article-1-428-fa.html
Nakhjirkan, P., Ashoori Chahardeh, M., & Abizadeh, S. (2024). Explanation of the theoretical model of the realizing the smart city of Rasht in the horizon of 1415 in the framework of strategic foresight using FCM in Mental Modeler. Urban Planning Knowledge, 8(2), 37-57. (In Persian) https://doi.org/10.22124/upk.2024.25967.1901
Reidy, B., Haase, A., Luch, A., Dawson, K. A., & Lynch, I. (2013). Mechanisms of silver nanoparticle release, transformation and toxicity: a critical review of current knowledge and recommendations for future studies and applications. Materials, 6(6), 2295-2350. https://doi.org/10.3390/ma6062295
Safaiepour, M., & Jafari, Y. (2022). Identification of proponents of Ahvaz metropolis development with a strategic foresight approach. Regional Planning, 12(46), 227-244. (In Persian) https://doi.org/10.30495/jzpm.2022.5363
Slaughter, R. A. (2002). Futures studies as a civilizational catalyst. Futures, 34(3-4), 349-363. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(01)00049-0
Slaughter, R. A.(2014). “Knowledge Base of Futures Studies”, the Futures Study Centre, Australia.
Toobchi Sani, A., Mohammadi, M., & Khazaee, S. (2019). Towards Planning In the New Age; Comparative study of Urban and Regional Planning with Futures Studies. Geography (Regional Planning), 9(35), 665-683. (In Persian) https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.22286462.1398.9.3.19.7
Vinod, S. K., Jameson, M. G., Min, M., & Holloway, L. C. (2016). Uncertainties in volume delineation in radiation oncology: a systematic review and recommendations for future studies. Radiotherapy and Oncology, 121(2), 169-179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.radonc.2016.09.009
Zali, N. (2019). Regional Foresight Redefining Regional Planning Process from the View of Futures Studies. Journal of Iran Futures Studies, 4(1), 263-288. (In Persian)  https://doi.org/10.30479/jfs.2019.9822.1033
Zali, N., & Atrian, F. (2016). Presentation of Tourism Regional Development scenarios Based on the Principles of Futures Studies (Case: Hamadan Province). Town and Country Planning, 8(1), 107-131. (In Persian) https://doi.org/10.22059/jtcp.2016.59147
Zali, N., Soltani, A., Najafi, P., Qajari, S. E., & Mehrju, M. (2024). Digital Twins for Smarter Iranian Cities: A Future Studies Perspective. Computational Urban Science, 4(1), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43762-024-00155-9
Zalli, N. (2012). Strategic Foresight and regional policy with emphasis on scenario planning approach. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 14(54), 33-54. (In Persian) https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.17350727.1390.14.54.2.0
ZangiAbadi, A., Hoseinikhah, H. , & Ghasemy, M. (2020). Regional development planning Based on Methods of analysis cross-impact And CIB (Case study: Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Province). Human Geography Research, 52(2), 657-674. (In Persian) https://doi.org/10.22059/jhgr.2019.229931.1007430
Zhamtkash, A., Ebrahimzadeh, A., & Zali, N. (2020). Pathology of the regional planning system in the northern coastal provinces of the country. Scientific and Research Quarterly Journal of New Approaches in Human Geography, 12(2), 1-16.‎  https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.66972251.1399.12.2.1.5
Zhou, S., Diao, H., Wang, M., Jia, W., Wang, Y., Liu, Z., ... & Zhao, Z. (2024). Knowledge mapping and emerging trends of urban resilient infrastructure research in urban studies: Precedent work, current progress and future perspectives. Journal of Cleaner Production, 142087.‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.142087
 
 
دانش شهرسازی
دوره 8، شماره 4
1403
صفحه 104-123

فایل ها

سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 07 تیر 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 21 مهر 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 13 آذر 1403

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار