نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری، پردیس بین الملل کیش، دانشگاه تهران، کیش، ایران
2 استاد مدیریت دولتی، گروه مدیریت دولتی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
3 استادیار آینده پژوهی، دانشکده حکمرانی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Problem Statement: Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural disasters, capable of triggering cascading effects and critical chain reactions that impact all dimensions of urban management. Tehran, with its high population density, vulnerable infrastructure, and seismic risk, ranks as one of the most at-risk cities globally. A potential earthquake in Tehran, with its cascading and interconnected impacts, could lead to widespread urban management crises. Considering the multi-hazard approach to disasters, such crises often extend beyond infrastructural damage, evolving into destructive chains of interrelated effects.
Objective: This study aims to identify the consequences of a potential earthquake in Tehran through the lens of complex urban environments, adopting a comprehensive and forward-looking approach. By analyzing the interdependencies among impacts and introducing the concept of "destructive chains" arising from cascading effects, the research seeks to provide insights for improving decision-making in urban management. The study focuses on analyzing these destructive chains to offer a preemptive urban security perspective, providing strategies to enhance urban resilience and mitigate the impacts of such crises.
Methodology: This research employs a qualitative approach, utilizing open coding, the Futures Wheel, and thematic analysis to identify and categorize the potential impacts of earthquakes across various domains. Additionally, multiple tools are employed to analyze and identify triggers and consequences.
Findings: The analysis reveals that an earthquake can generate interconnected impacts across critical infrastructure, collective psychology, energy networks, and socio-economic systems. These impacts interact and amplify one another, forming destructive chains across seven domains: environmental security, critical infrastructure, psychological well-being, energy systems, economic stability, vital resources, and sustainable governance.
Conclusion: A potential earthquake in Tehran could generate cascading impacts that lead to multilayered crises across infrastructural, economic, social, and environmental dimensions. Effective management of such crises requires comprehensive planning, strengthening critical networks, improving urban structural management, establishing resilient urban systems, and fostering coordination among relevant institutions.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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