شناسایی و تحلیل آینده پژوهانه پیامدهای آبشاری زلزله احتمالی در تهران (معرفی زنجیره‌های متقاطع، مخرب و پیچیده)

Introduction: Earthquakes are among the most devastating natural disasters due to their unpredictability and extensive consequences Because of the dense population and vulnerable infrastructure in Tehran,, the risk of cascading effects and interconnected crises caused by earthquakes is significantly heightened. These cascading effects often result in long-term challenges across various sectors, including social, environmental, economic, and governance systems. Understanding these interconnected impacts is crucial for developing proactive urban management and resilience strategies. This study aims to identify the cascading and systemic impacts of a potential earthquake in Tehran. It focuses on analyzing the interactions and interdependencies among these impacts to highlight destructive chains. By presenting a comprehensive and future-oriented framework, the study seeks to enhance decision-making in urban management and civil defense, thereby strengthening urban resilience and mitigating the impacts of crises.
Methodology: A qualitative approach was employed to examine the potential impacts of an earthquake in Tehran. Data were gathered through semi-structured interviews with experts and analyzed using the Future Wheel Technique, open coding, and thematic analysis. A Likert scale questionnaire was administered to identify high-impact outcomes with the potential to trigger destructive chains. Expert evaluations were conducted to validate the findings and prioritize the most significant consequences.
Results: The findings revealed that an earthquake in Tehran could initiate destructive chains across seven critical domains: Chains threatening the environment and disrupting ecosystems refer to cascading events initiated by natural disasters, such as earthquakes, that significantly alter ecological balances. These chains not only lead to the displacement of species and biodiversity loss but also undermine critical ecosystem services, including water purification, soil stability, and carbon sequestration. Such disruptions create long-term repercussions for human health, food security, and economic resilience. The compounded effects extend into socio-economic systems, highlighting the interconnectedness of environmental integrity and societal stability.Vulnerability chains and the weakening of susceptible infrastructure following seismic events severely disrupt the effective functioning of critical systems, such as transportation, healthcare, energy, and water, significantly diminishing communities 'ability to manage crises and rebuild.
Infrastructure vulnerability during earthquakes impairs the delivery of essential services, exacerbates social inequalities, lowers the quality of life, and increases costs. Therefore, effectively managing these vulnerability chains is a prerequisite for accelerating reconstruction, reducing casualties, and enhancing community resilience in the face of future events.Chains exacerbating post-earthquake psychological damage can range from mild anxiety disorders to severe trauma conditions, such as Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). Earthquakes, being highly traumatic events, bring death to close family members, financial ruin, and the destruction of vital infrastructure. This trauma is further worsened by the continuous fear of aftershocks and the disruption of social networks. Poor mental health infrastructure—from basic services to more comprehensive systems—can significantly limit the ability to cope, thereby aggravating psychological harm. These psychological effects have serious ramifications beyond personal health, as they permeate all levels of decision-making, from the individual to the institutional level, and may manifest as behavioral tensions that inhibit collective action. This spiral of damage often leads to heightened social friction, a lack of coordination in response to the crisis, and a breakdown in confidence in authorities within the affected communities. Additionally, these psychological injuries can lead to increased social inequality, delayed recovery, and generally lower resilience. Societies with underdeveloped mental health systems face significant risks, as many lack effective frameworks for intervention. Fully understanding this chain of impact is crucial for implementing interventions that not only support mental health but also strengthen social cohesion and accelerate recovery.Chains undermining economic security and sustainability include the corrosive economic impact of earthquakes—a sudden and sharp economic shock. Infrastructure damage, supply-chain disruptions, and reduced demand lead to lower production, higher unemployment, and inflation. Disturbed investor confidence, driven by these factors, further hampers efforts to attract both domestic and foreign investment. These challenges are exacerbated by pre-existing structural conditions such as economic inequalities, weak financial institutions, and a lack of transparency in decision-making. The consequences of earthquakes not only devastate the regional economy but also hinder sustainable development and exacerbate social inequalities. Therefore, a deep understanding of these chains is crucial for developing appropriate economic policies aimed at strengthening economic resilience and ensuring faster and more sustainable recovery in earthquake-affected regions.
Chains threatening energy security and sustainability are triggered by earthquakes, which are recognized as devastating
Discussion: natural phenomena that create significant challenges for energy management. Earthquakes can cause the destruction of power plants, electricity transmission lines, and gas distribution networks, leading to widespread energy outages. In addition to risks such as gas leaks and fires, these situations can escalate into secondary crises, like explosions. Damage to energy infrastructure—particularly crucial for hospitals and healthcare centers—disrupts the provision of essential services, increasing fatalities. Furthermore, disruptions in fuel supply chains for power plants and critical industries, caused by damage to transportation infrastructure, not only reduce energy production but also severely impact the functioning of key sectors, including healthcare and industry.Chains threatening the sustainability and management of vital resources triggered by earthquakes extend beyond physical destruction, leading to widespread humanitarian crises. A key challenge after an earthquake is the damage to critical infrastructure, such as water supply systems, food distribution networks, and healthcare services. The destruction of water infrastructure and disruption of food supply chains exacerbate shortages of drinking water and essential food supplies. This, combined with the damage to healthcare facilities and the sudden surge in demand for medical services, leads to the spread of infectious diseases and increased mortality rates. Weak resource management and a lack of coordination in relief efforts further deepen the crisis, leading to social unrest, violence, and looting. These conditions erode public trust in government and relief organizations, complicating and delaying the recovery process. Moreover, these chains of threats intensify social inequalities, placing additional economic and social pressure on affected communities, significantly delaying their return to normalcy.Chains posing risks to sustainable governance and social cohesion arise as earthquakes place immense pressure on political and social systems. Earthquakes, as sudden and devastating events, challenge governance structures by eroding public trust, exacerbating social inequalities, and creating displacement and migration crises. The destruction of infrastructure and disruption of governmental institutions lead to inefficiencies in service delivery and crisis response, further diminishing public confidence in the government and fostering corruption and mismanagement. The inability to manage the post-disaster aftermath, such as the unequal distribution of aid, intensifies social disparities and weakens social cohesion, potentially leading to protests, civil unrest, and even the collapse of governance at local and, in extreme cases, national levels. Additionally, in such destabilized conditions, external threats and exploitation by adversaries can jeopardize national security. The long-term consequences of this chain of risks include prolonged recovery, rising poverty and inequality, political instability, and a decline in the quality of life in affected regions. These challenges underscore the critical need for strengthening governance, enhancing social cohesion, and ensuring efficient disaster preparedness.These destructive chains necessitate specific policy interventions aimed at either preventing crises from escalating or mitigating their worst effects. By targeting critical points within these chains, such as improving infrastructure resilience or developing emergency resource management protocols, Tehran can reduce the likelihood of cascading impacts overwhelming the city.
Conclusion: This research highlights the importance of managing destructive chains through enhanced coordination, strengthened governance structures, and proactive planning. By integrating civil defense principles, urban management strategies, and multi-sector collaboration, Tehran can improve its resilience to earthquakes and reduce the risk of cascading crises. The study provides a foundation for future research on systemic disaster impacts and offers practical insights for policymakers to prioritize actions that mitigate secondary and tertiary effects.