آینده‌پژوهی انتقادی در بافت پیرامونی حرم‌های زیارتی: تحلیلی بر مبنای روش CLA

Introduction: 
Today, the urban fabric surrounding pilgrimage shrines—comprising a network of interconnected buildings and urban elements with a predominant heritage-cultural and commercial function that serves the needs of both pilgrims and residents—is facing various complex issues and widespread deficiencies across multiple scales. These challenges are largely the result of urban management interventions aimed at providing pilgrimage-support infrastructure. The nature of these interventions has been shaped by influential discourses and worldviews—stemming from both secular and religious ideologies—and guided by dominant narratives such as “pilgrimage,” “religious tourism,” and “tourism.” This has sparked ongoing debate in academic and professional circles about how such interventions should be approached. In response, the present study is formed around two core research questions: (1) Why have most urban interventions in the areas surrounding religious shrines been perceived, in practice, as problematic? and (2) Based on Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), what alternative future scenarios can be envisioned for these areas? Within this framework, identifying the hidden and foundational layers that contribute to the problematic nature of these interventions becomes essential, as only by understanding these layers can we construct alternative, future-oriented scenarios aligned with the unique nature of pilgrimage-oriented urban environments. The significance of this research is threefold: first, to protect the tangible and intangible cultural heritage of pilgrimage cities, which reflect religious beliefs and practices but are increasingly threatened by rapid, decontextualized physical interventions; second, to address the intensifying conflict between tourism-centered and pilgrimage-centered discourses, which calls for a critical reassessment of the foundations of urban planning in such contexts; and third, to highlight the necessity of integrated and forward-thinking planning approaches in pilgrimage cities, which could serve as a model for similar sacred urban settings. 
This research aims to contribute to developing such a framework by integrating interpretive, data-driven, and futures-oriented methodologies.
Methodology: This study adopts a futures studies orientation through a systematic review aimed at exploring the multilayered factors influencing future urban interventions around pilgrimage sites. Employing a qualitative research paradigm, it integrates two complementary methods—qualitative content analysis and Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)—in a purposeful and coherent manner aligned with the study’s conceptual framework. In the first phase, qualitative content analysis is used to extract key concepts, code recurring themes, and organize data gathered from documentary sources and existing literature. In the second phase, this structured data serves as a systematic input into the CLA process, which facilitates deeper interpretation across multiple levels of meaning. The study sample comprises 42 research works conducted between 1376 and 1404 in the Iranian calendar (1997–2025). Data were collected through extensive library and documentary research focused on relevant scholarly literature. The selection and screening process follows Fink’s (2014) framework for conducting systematic reviews. The output of the layered analysis identifies key drivers as influential and transformative forces shaping future urban development trajectories. These findings form the foundation for the construction of alternative scenarios. This integrative approach not only capitalizes on the methodological strengths of systematic reviews but also ensures conceptual coherence between the data-driven structure of content analysis and the interpretive depth of the CLA framework. By uncovering hidden patterns and alternative narratives, this approach supports the visualization of diverse and plausible futures. Ultimately, , in this research, to address the study’s core question, distinct policy directions are articulated across the four analytical layers.
Results: The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) across four layers—litany, systemic causes, discourse, and myth/metaphor—identified the key drivers, which served as the basis for the development of four alternative future scenarios. This approach enabled the visualization of potential futures and the formulation of alternative policy directions for managing the urban fabric surrounding pilgrimage shrines. The findings indicate that the primary roots of the current problematic interventions in pilgrimage cities lie in the tensions between discourses at the deeper layers of CLA (myth and discourse). Specifically, the dominance of a tourism-oriented discourse and the prevalence of secular ideologies, coupled with the neglect of pilgrimage-centered narratives and the adoption of the “both pilgrim and tourist” metaphor, along with the inefficiencies of governance structures at the intermediate (structural) layer, constitute the principal drivers of contemporary urban challenges in these sacred urban contexts.
Discussion: This study presents four distinct visions of a conceivable future within the framework of four scenarios derived from key drivers identified in the theoretical literature of this field. These scenarios can serve as a foundation for informed policymaking aimed at enhancing place identity, improving the quality of pilgrimage experiences, and managing future transformations in the urban fabric. The selection of the two key uncertainties that shape the scenarios was based on a matrix of impact/uncertainty and followed the structured framework of causal layered analysis. These uncertainties exhibit the highest influence and unpredictability in shaping future developments in the areas surrounding pilgrimage sites. The first scenario, “Preserving Sanctity within the Framework of Authority,” emphasizes the continuation of centralized, pilgrimage-centered structures. While it appears to protect the sanctity of pilgrimage sites, over the long term, it may lead to a weakening of religious identity. The second scenario, “Integrating Spirituality and Innovative Governance,” adopts a participatory and pilgrimage-centered approach. This scenario enables the expression of religious and spiritual values, fosters the involvement of key stakeholders and influential groups, and encourages institutional innovation. The third scenario, “Forced Commercialization,” emerges from a combination of centralized governance and a tourism-oriented approach. This results in the reduction of pilgrimage to a commodified experience, the erosion of spiritual culture, and the dominance of secular discourse and worldviews. Finally, the fourth scenario, “Global Pilgrimage City,” envisions a participatory and tourism-driven model that offers a transnational and multifaceted perspective on the modern concept of pilgrimage in the era of globalization. While it attracts investment and cultural diversity, it also faces significant challenges in preserving authentic identity and managing cultural change. Accordingly, these four scenarios represent a spectrum of alternative possibilities that not only provide a framework for understanding forthcoming transformations but also enable deliberate intervention in the future-making process of pilgrimage cities. Moving toward the scenario of integrating spirituality with innovative governance in a participatory context may be considered a strategic option for policymakers, urban managers, and planning authorities in addressing identity crises, the commodification of space, and the challenges of mass tourism.
Conclusion: This study, employing Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) and a problem re-framing approach, examined the past, present, and key future uncertainties surrounding interventions in the urban fabric around pilgrimage shrines. Following the identification of key drivers across CLA layers, their evaluation using an impact–uncertainty matrix, and the selection of two critical uncertainties—namely, the “pilgrimage–tourism tension” and the “governance system”—a framework was developed to delineate four alternative future scenarios: “Preserving Sanctity within the Framework of Authority,” “Integrating Spirituality and Innovative Governance,” “Forced Commercialization,” and “Global Pilgrimage City.”