تحلیل ابعاد تاب آوری شهری در برابر مخاطرات محیطی در استان لرستان

Introduction: 
Natural hazards constitute one of the most significant challenges facing human societies worldwide, causing extensive economic losses, environmental degradation, and human casualties each year. Countries with complex geological and climatic conditions, such as Iran, are particularly vulnerable to a wide range of environmental hazards. Among these regions, Lorestan Province stands out due to its unique combination of geological structures, including active tectonic systems, diverse lithological formations, and variable climatic patterns. These characteristics collectively contribute to the high susceptibility of the region to hazards such as earthquakes, floods, droughts, and land subsidence. The increasing frequency and intensity of such hazards, coupled with rapid urbanization and unplanned development, have significantly amplified the vulnerability of both urban and rural settlements. In many cases, human activities—such as improper land use, deforestation, and unsustainable exploitation of natural resources—have further exacerbated the impacts of natural hazards. Therefore, reducing potential damages requires a comprehensive understanding of hazard distribution and the identification of high-risk areas. One of the most effective strategies in disaster risk reduction is spatial analysis and zoning of hazards. By identifying areas with varying levels of risk, policymakers and planners can develop targeted strategies for mitigation, preparedness, and resilient urban development. In this context, the present study aims to evaluate environmental hazard risks in Lorestan Province and identify vulnerable population centers using a spatially integrated approach. This research contributes to improving disaster management strategies and enhancing resilience through informed planning and decision-making.
Methodology: This study is applied-developmental in nature and adopts a descriptive-analytical approach to assess environmental hazards in Lorestan Province. The research methodology is based on the integration of quantitative spatial analysis and qualitative interpretation of environmental and socio-economic data. 
Data collection was carried out using multiple sources to ensure accuracy and comprehensiveness. These sources included library-based studies, statistical data from urban management organizations, population data from the Iranian Statistics Center, and technical standards derived from the Iranian National Building Code (Code 2800). This code provides a standardized framework for seismic hazard zoning and plays a critical role in assessing structural vulnerability across the country. To evaluate hazard vulnerability, several spatial information layers were utilized, including earthquake hazard zoning, flood-prone areas, subsidence zones, and drought indices. These layers were developed based on the guidelines of Code 2800 and data from the Building and Housing Research Center. Additional environmental parameters—such as slope, elevation, land use, rainfall, lithology, and proximity to faults and water networks—were incorporated to enhance the accuracy of hazard assessment. Geographic Information Systems (GIS), specifically ArcGIS software, were employed as the primary analytical tool. GIS enabled the integration, processing, and spatial analysis of multiple data layers, facilitating the identification of hazard-prone zones across the province. Through overlay analysis and spatial modeling, different hazard categories were classified into risk levels ranging from low to very high. Furthermore, drought conditions were analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which combines temperature and precipitation data to provide a comprehensive measure of climatic stress. The use of remote sensing data, including ETM satellite imagery and NDVI indices, also contributed to the analysis of land use patterns and vegetation cover. Overall, the methodology emphasizes a multi-hazard, multi-criteria approach, allowing for a holistic assessment of environmental risks in Lorestan Province.
Results: The findings of this study reveal that Lorestan Province is highly exposed to multiple environmental hazards, primarily due to its geographical location and anthropogenic influences. The spatial analysis indicates that several urban and rural settlements are located within high-risk and very high-risk zones. Specifically, ten cities—Poldokhtar, Shulabad, Sepiddasht, Biran Shahr, Chalachulan, Firuzabad, Nurabad, Haft Cheshmeh, Venai, and Barkhordar—were identified as being situated in areas with significant hazard exposure. These areas are characterized by a combination of seismic activity, flood susceptibility, and environmental instability, making them particularly vulnerable to disaster events. In addition to residential areas, industrial zones are also at considerable risk. The industrial towns of Khorramabad 3 and Dorud 1, along with the Ali Mirzayi Nurabad industrial zone, are located within high-risk zones. This highlights the potential for severe economic losses and disruptions in critical infrastructure in the event of natural disasters. The analysis further demonstrates that environmental hazards in the province are not solely natural phenomena but are also influenced by human activities. Improper land use planning, expansion of settlements into hazard-prone areas, and insufficient consideration of environmental constraints have intensified the level of risk. Discussion:  A comparative analysis of population distribution and settlement patterns in high-risk areas reveals significant disparities across the province. The cities of Khorramabad and Delfan have the highest number of rural populations residing in high-risk and very high-risk zones. This indicates a critical need for targeted risk reduction strategies in these areas, particularly in rural communities where infrastructure and emergency response capacities may be limited. In contrast, the counties of Rumeshkan, Kohdasht, and Chegini exhibit relatively lower populations in high-risk zones. While this may suggest reduced vulnerability, it does not eliminate the need for preventive measures, as even low-population areas can experience severe impacts during hazard events. The concentration of population in hazardous areas underscores the importance of integrating risk assessment into regional planning. It also highlights the necessity of adopting non-structural measures such as land-use regulation, public awareness programs, and disaster preparedness initiatives. From a non-operational defense perspective, improving resilience requires a combination of spatial planning, infrastructure strengthening, and community-based risk management.
Conclusion: The results of this study indicate that environmental hazards pose a serious threat to both urban and rural areas in Lorestan Province. More than 600 villages, with a total population exceeding 105,000 people, are located in high-risk zones. This represents a substantial proportion of the province’s population and emphasizes the urgency of implementing effective risk mitigation strategies. Among these settlements, the villages of Rabat (Khorramabad), Pachehlak Gharbi (Azna), and Hemmatabad (Borujerd), each with populations exceeding 200 residents, are identified as the most populous high-risk villages. These areas require immediate attention in terms of disaster preparedness, infrastructure resilience, and relocation planning where necessary. In conclusion, the study highlights the critical role of spatial analysis and GIS-based approaches in identifying vulnerable areas and supporting informed decision-making. Policymakers and planners should prioritize hazard zoning in development plans and adopt integrated strategies to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience. Future research should focus on dynamic risk modeling and the incorporation of socio-economic factors to further improve hazard management frameworks.