ارزیابی پیشران‌های مؤثر بر تحقق مسکن پایدار در بستر اقتصاد چرخشی تحت شرایط عدم‌قطعیت: مطالعه‌ای آینده‌پژوهانه در شهر یزد

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناس ارشد، گروه شهرسازی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه شهرسازی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

چکیده

بیان مسئله: شهر یزد با رشد سریع جمعیت و محدودیت شدید منابع طبیعی، با چالش جدی تأمین مسکن پایدار مواجه است. برنامه‌ریزی کنونی مسکن عمدتاً بر الگوی خطی استوار است و پیوند مؤثری با اصول اقتصاد چرخشی (بازچرخانی مصالح، انرژی تجدیدپذیر و کاهش ضایعات) برقرار نکرده است. این شکاف موجب افزایش هزینه‌های زیست‌محیطی، هدررفت منابع و نابرابری دسترسی به مسکن گردیده است.
هدف: هدف این پژوهش، شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی مؤثر بر تحقق مسکن پایدار با رویکرد اقتصاد چرخشی است تا مبنایی برای بازطراحی سیاست‌های شهری در یزد فراهم کند و الگویی مقیاس‌پذیر برای سایر شهرهای کویری ارائه دهد.
روش: روش پژوهش مبتنی بر آینده‌پژوهی ساختاری، تکنیک دلفی، تحلیل تأثیرات متقابل با نرم افزار میک‌مک و تحلیل حساسیت با نرم افزار متلب است.
یافته‌ها: تحلیل ساختاری میک‌مک و تحلیل حساسیت محلی نشان داد که پیشران‌های پایدار و محرک اصلی نظام مسکن پایدار یزد عبارتند از: نرخ بازیافت مصالح ساختمانی (C02)، کارایی مدیریت پسماند ساختمانی (C04) و ارتباط مسکن با احساس امنیت و شادی (C08) که در همه سطوح مستقیم، غیرمستقیم و بالقوه دارای بالاترین تأثیرگذاری و پایداری رتبه‌ای بودند. در مقابل، پیشران‌های پذیرش فناوری‌های سبز در ساخت‌وساز (C01)، بهره‌برداری از منابع محلی (C18)، ظرفیت تولید انرژی خورشیدی (C20) و هماهنگی بین نهادهای شهری (C16) با وجود اثرپذیری بالا، حساسیت بسیار زیاد از خود نشان دادند و به‌عنوان پیشران‌های شکننده و بحرانی سیستم شناسایی شدند.
نتیجه ­گیری: موفقیت این گذار وابسته به تقویت همزمان سه اهرم پایدار (بازچرخانی مصالح، مدیریت چرخشی پسماند و ارتقای کیفیت زندگی اجتماعی) و پایدارسازی سریع پیشران‌های شکننده (پذیرش فناوری سبز، انرژی خورشیدی و هماهنگی نهادی) است. ماتریس سناریوهای ۲×۲ نشان می‌دهد تنها ترکیب «هماهنگی نهادی بالا + پذیرش فناوری سبز بالا» به «جهش سبز یزد» منجر می‌شود؛ در غیر این صورت، شهر با پیشرفت کند، نوآوری‌های پراکنده یا رکود چرخشی مواجه خواهد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of Key Factors Influencing the Realization of Sustainable Housing within the context of Circular Economy under Conditions of Uncertainty: A Future Study in the City of Yazd

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Naderi 1
  • Mahsa Zarandi 1
  • MOHSEN RAFIEIAN 2
1 M.S. Student, Department of Urban Planning & Design, Faculty of Art and Architecture, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Urbanism, Faculty of Art and Architecture, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Urban population growth, resource scarcity, and environmental degradation necessitate innovative urban development models. Sustainable housing, a critical component of urban systems, mitigates environmental impacts, enhances resilience, and improves quality of life. Conventional linear housing planning faces challenges such as rising environmental costs and resource inefficiency. The circular economy, which emphasizes material recycling, waste reduction, and the integration of renewable energy sources (e.g., solar energy), offers a transformative framework for sustainable housing. Yazd, located in Iran’s central plateau, faces rapid population growth, increasing housing demand, water scarcity, and spatial inequalities that threaten sustainability. Despite its rich cultural heritage and significant solar-energy potential, inefficiencies in material recycling and policy coordination hinder progress. Previous studies in Iran have focused primarily on the technical or social dimensions of housing while neglecting the integration of circular-economy principles and futures-oriented planning. This study identifies the key factors influencing sustainable housing in Yazd through a circular-economy lens, employing futures studies to forecast trends and develop policy scenarios under conditions of uncertainty. It provides a localized framework for Yazd that can be scaled to similar arid cities, thereby enriching the literature on urban planning and sustainability.
Methodology: Conducted in Yazd, a culturally significant city with unique climatic challenges, this study adopted a futures-studies approach using structural and cross-impact analysis through MICMAC software. The research process consisted of the following steps:

Literature Review: Criteria were extracted from scientific publications and strategic planning documents.
Expert Interviews: Semi-structured interviews with urban planning and environmental experts were conducted to identify key factors and uncertainties.
Delphi Technique: A panel of 12 experts scored a 20 × 20 cross-impact matrix (0 = no effect; 3 = strong effect) to assess interactions among factors.
MICMAC Analysis: The data were analyzed to classify factors as key, dependent, or regulatory variables.
Sensitivity Analysis: Perturbations of ±5% and ±10% were applied to 20 indicators (e.g., C02: material recycling, C04: waste management, and C20: solar energy) using MATLAB, and changes in rankings were visualized.

Results: MICMAC analysis revealed a complex system with a matrix fill rate of 71%, indicating dense interactions among factors (284 of 400 relationships were significant: 116 no effect, 99 weak, 90 moderate, and 95 strong). Total influence and dependence scores were balanced at 564. Key findings include:

Influential Factors: Material recycling (C02), waste management (C04), and the housing–security–happiness linkage (C08) exhibited high levels of direct influence (Figures 3 and 4).
Dependent Factors: Green technology adoption (C01), institutional coordination (C16), and solar-energy capacity (C20) were highly dependent variables.
Dominant Dimensions: Environmental factors (e.g., recycling and climate change) and social factors (e.g., quality of life) were dominant, whereas technological and managerial factors were primarily dependent.
Sensitivity Analysis: C02 and C04 were highly stable (0–3 ranking changes), C08 exhibited moderate stability (3–7 ranking changes), whereas C01, C18 (local resource utilization), and C20 were highly sensitive (16–18 ranking changes), reflecting systemic vulnerabilities.

Influence–dependence maps and graphical analyses identified C02, C04, and C08 as key drivers, while potential relationships highlighted the need for adaptive and dynamic planning strategies.
Discussion: The study maps a dynamic network for sustainable housing in Yazd that depends on environmental, social, technological, and institutional strategies:

Resource Recycling: The prominence of C02 and C04 is consistent with studies identifying recycling and waste management as core pillars of the circular economy. Yazd’s industrial waste streams (e.g., steel and tile waste) offer significant circularity potential, requiring investment in recycling infrastructure.
Quality of Life: The role of C08 in promoting social sustainability, supported by studies on resident satisfaction, suggests that innovative approaches such as product–service systems (PSS) can enhance social acceptance.
Green Technologies: The high sensitivity of C01 and C20 underscores Yazd’s considerable solar-energy potential while highlighting barriers to adoption, thereby necessitating greater technological investment.
Institutional Coordination: The instability of C16 reflects governance challenges that require stronger policy alignment and stakeholder collaboration.

Policy Implications: The proposed framework, which is scalable to other arid cities, integrates recycling, technology, and governance while emphasizing social acceptance. Policymakers should prioritize the development of recycled-material databases, investment in solar-energy infrastructure, community engagement initiatives, and enhanced institutional coordination.
Conclusion: This study provides the first structural and sensitivity-based futures analysis of sustainable housing within a circular-economy framework in a desert city of the Global South. The combination of MICMAC structural analysis and local sensitivity assessment revealed that the future of Yazd’s housing system depends on a small set of highly influential yet differentially robust drivers. Three drivers proved highly stable and dominant across direct, indirect, potential, and perturbed conditions: the rate of building-material recycling (C02), the efficiency of construction-waste management (C04), and the relationship between housing and residents’ sense of security and happiness (C08). These variables constitute the robust backbone of the system and should serve as the non-negotiable core of any effective policy package.  In contrast, technology adoption (C01), local resource utilization (C18), solar-energy integration (C20), and inter-institutional coordination (C16) exhibited high sensitivity, with ranking shifts of up to 18 positions under ±5–10% perturbations.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sustainable Housing
  • Circular Economy
  • Futures Studies
  • Urban Planning
  • Uncertainty

مراجع

Alqahtani, F. K., Al-Jadhai, S., Alromihy, H., Alsaud, M., Sherif, M., & Mohamed, A. G. (2024). Appraising critical success factors in sustainable housing projects: A comparative study of PPP modalities in Saudi Arabia. Heliyon, 10(12), e32854. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e32854
Bagheri, B., & Shaykh-Baygloo, R. (2021). Spatial analysis of urban smart growth and its effects on housing price: The case of Isfahan, Iran. Sustainable Cities and Society, 68, 102769. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.102769
BELADİ, K. (2022). Evaluating Sustainability Aspects of Housing in UNESCO world heritage city of Yazd Case Study: Lariha House. AURUM Journal of Engineering Systems and Architecture. https://doi.org/10.53600/ajesa.1139073
Carrasco, F. A., & May, J. F. (2025). Material Sustainability of Low-Energy Housing Electric Components: A Systematic Literature Review and Outlook. Sustainability, 17(3), 852. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17030852
Çetin, S., Gruis, V., & Straub, A. (2022). Digitalization for a circular economy in the building industry: Multiple-case study of Dutch social housing organizations. Resources, Conservation & Recycling Advances, 15, 200110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rcradv.2022.200110
Chan, A. P. C., & Adabre, M. A. (2019). Bridging the gap between sustainable housing and affordable housing: The required critical success criteria (CSC). Building and Environment, 151, 112–125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2019.01.029
Corvellec, H., Stowell, A. F., & Johansson, N. (2022). Critiques of the circular economy. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 26(2), 421–432. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13187
Dehghan, A. A. (2011). Status and potentials of renewable energies in Yazd Province-Iran. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15(3), 1491–1496. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2010.11.002
Du, H., Hui, E. C., Park, G.-R., & Chen, L. (2025). Measuring the housing precarity of migrant private tenants and assessing its impact on their life satisfaction - evidence from Guangzhou, China. Applied Geography, 179, 103616. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2025.103616
Edwards, B., & Turrent, D. (2002). Sustainable housing: Principles and practice. Taylor & Francis.
Friedman, A. (2025). Housing Design for Circular Economy and Sustainability. Sustainability, 17(7), 2921. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17072921
Ghafoor, S., Hosseini, M. R., Kocaturk, T., Weiss, M., & Barnett, M. (2023). The product-service system approach for housing in a circular economy: An integrative literature review. Journal of Cleaner Production, 403, 136845. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136845
Ghafoor, S., Kocaturk, T., Hosseini, M. R., Weiss, M., & Barnett, M. (2024). How to deploy the PSS towards a circular economy in housing? A multiple-case study. Journal of Cleaner Production, 477, 143821. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.143821
Gil, G. O., Chowdhury, J. I., Balta-Ozkan, N., Hu, Y., Varga, L., & Hart, P. (2021). Optimising renewable energy integration in new housing developments with low carbon technologies. Renewable Energy, 169, 527–540. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2021.01.059
Gomide, F. P. de B., Bragança, L., & Casagrande Junior, E. F. (2024a). How Can the Circular Economy Contribute to Resolving Social Housing Challenges? Applied System Innovation, 7(2), 21. https://doi.org/10.3390/asi7020021
Gomide, F. P. de B., Bragança, L., & Casagrande Junior, E. F. (2024c). The Synergy of Community, Government, and Circular Economy in Shaping Social Housing Policies. Buildings, 14(7), 1897. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings14071897
Isalou, A. A., Litman, T., & Shahmoradi, B. (2014). Testing the housing and transportation affordability index in a developing world context: A sustainability comparison of central and suburban districts in Qom, Iran. Transport Policy, 33, 33–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2014.02.006
Jang, S., & Park, H. (2025). Spatial equity in public rental housing based on commuting accessibility. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 100196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rspp.2025.100196
Keena, N., Friedman, A., Parsaee, M., Mussio, M., Klein, A., Pomasonco-Alvis, M., & Pinheiro, P. (2025). Housing Passport knowledge graph: Promoting a circular economy in urban residential buildings. Sustainable Cities and Society, 119, 106050. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2024.106050
Khajuria, A., Verma, P., Vella, A., Zanini-Freitag, D., Xin, H., Murthy, I. K., Arora, J. K., Sylva, K., Menon, L., Pardeshi, S., Kral, U., & Liu, X. (2025). The SDG accelerator: circular economy solutions through efficient sustainable consumption. Circular Economy, 100140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cec.2025.100140
Khatibi, A., Razi Astaraei, F., & Jahangir, M. H. (2023). Using cluster analysis and genetic algorithm for multi-objective optimisation of hybrid electricity supply systems: the case of a photovoltaic/wind/ battery grid-connected system in Yazd, Iran. International Journal of Ambient Energy, 44(1), 474–482. https://doi.org/10.1080/01430750.2022.2128418
Khorshidian, A., & Fayazi, M. (2023). Critical factors to succeed in post-earthquake housing reconstruction in Iran. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 94, 103786. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103786
Kung, H.-Y., Juan, Y.-K., & Castro-Lacouture, D. (2025). Decision support model for evaluating circular economy strategies in private residential construction. Developments in the Built Environment, 21, 100602. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dibe.2025.100602
Lipp, A.-M., & Lederer, J. (2025). The circular economy of packaging waste in Austria: An evaluation based on statistical entropy and material flow analysis. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 217, 108193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108193
Liu, M., Shi, J., Shen, J., & Man Hui, E. C. (2025). Are migrants willing to pay more for better housing? The amenity effect in China’s urban housing markets. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 102224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2025.102224
Marchesi, M., & Tweed, C. (2021). Social innovation for a circular economy in social housing. Sustainable Cities and Society, 71, 102925. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.102925
Marchesi, M., Tweed, C., & Gerber, D. (2020). Applying Circular Economy Principles to Urban Housing. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 588(5), 052065. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/588/5/052065
Miatto, A., Emami, N., Goodwin, K., West, J., Taskhiri, M. S., Wiedmann, T., & Schandl, H. (2024). Australia’s circular economy metrics and indicators. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 28(2), 216–231. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13458
MICHALOS, A. C. (1997). COMBINING SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS TO MEASURE SUSTAINABLE HUMAN WELL-BEING. Social Indicators Research, 40(1/2), 221–258. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1006815729503
Najarzadeh, R., & Shahidi, A. (2015). Modeling Housing Demand for New Residential Buildings in Urban Areas. Iranian Economic Review, 19(2), 165–176. https://doi.org/10.22059/ier.2015.56077
Olabi, A. G. (2019). Circular economy and renewable energy. Energy, 181, 450–454. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.05.196
Parezanović, A., Nadaždi, A., Isailović, D., Višnjevac, N., & Petojević, Z. (2025). Mapping the urban building stock for a circular economy by integrating GIS and BIM. A case study from Belgrade, Serbia. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 215, 108075. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.108075
Parivar, P., Quanrud, D., Sotoudeh, A., & Abolhasani, M. (2021). Evaluation of urban ecological sustainability in arid lands (case study: Yazd-Iran). Environment, Development and Sustainability, 23(2), 2797–2826. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-00637-w
Ren, Z., Shan, Y., Jian, Z., & Zhu, D. (2025). Evaluating the forward-looking perspectives of environmental policy enforcement and institutional framework in the pursuit of a circular economy: A moments-quantile approach. Journal of Environmental Management, 382, 125442. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125442
Roufechaei, K. M., Hassan Abu Bakar, A., & Tabassi, A. A. (2014). Energy-efficient design for sustainable housing development. Journal of Cleaner Production, 65, 380–388. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2013.09.015
Sadeghi, A., Larimian, T., & Molabashi, A. (2012). Evaluation of Renewable Energy Sources for Generating Electricity in Province of Yazd: A Fuzzy Mcdm Approach. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 62, 1095–1099. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.09.187
Saffari darberazi, ali, Ghadirian, A. M., Haqbin, A., & Abdi, M. (2024). Structural Analysis of Green Identity and Consumer Loyalty in Tile and Ceramic Industry of Yazd Province Using Structural Equation Modeling. Commercial Surveys. https://doi.org/10.22034/bs.2024.2033803.2984
Sarvari, H., Mehrabi, A., Chan, D. W. M., & Cristofaro, M. (2021). Evaluating urban housing development patterns in developing countries: Case study of Worn-out Urban Fabrics in Iran. Sustainable Cities and Society, 70, 102941. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.102941
Scott, M., & Moore, N. (2017). Renewing Urban Communities (N. Moore & M. Scott, Eds.). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315244518
Seyfang, G. (2010). Community action for sustainable housing: Building a low-carbon future. Energy Policy, 38(12), 7624–7633. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.10.027
Shahmohammadian, A., Ghafory-Ashtiany, M., Mansouri, B., Motamed, H., & Nasserasadi, K. (2025). FiCat-EQ: An integrated system-based tool for assessing financial vulnerability and economic impact of seismic risk, case study: Housing sector of Iran. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 123, 105474. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105474
Shehadeh, A., Alshboul, O., Taamneh, M. M., Jaradat, A. Q., Alomari, A. H., & Arar, M. (2025). Advanced integration of BIM and VR in the built environment: Enhancing sustainability and resilience in urban development. Heliyon, 11(4), e42558. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2025.e42558
Stacy, C., Hodge, T. R., Komarek, T. M., Davis, C., Stern, A., Noble, O., Morales-Burnett, J., & Rogin, A. (2025). Rent control and the supply of affordable housing. Journal of Housing Economics, 68, 102063. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102063
Suleimany, M. (2023). Urban climate justice in hot-arid regions: Vulnerability assessment and spatial analysis of socio-economic and housing inequality in Isfahan, Iran. Urban Climate, 51, 101612. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101612
Tomi. (2025). A Transition to Sustainable Housing: progress and Prospects for a Low Carbon Housing Future. International Journal of Housing Policy, 25(1), 203–206. https://doi.org/10.1080/19491247.2024.2432696 
Winston, N. (2022). Sustainable community development: Integrating social and environmental sustainability for sustainable housing and communities. Sustainable Development, 30(1), 191–202. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2238
Winston, N., & Pareja Eastaway, M. (2008). Sustainable Housing in the Urban Context: International Sustainable Development Indicator Sets and Housing. Social Indicators Research, 87(2), 211–221. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-007-9165-8
Yangzom, P., Choden, S., & Bardhan, R. (2025). Residential satisfaction in a country that prioritises happiness: Empirical evidences from affordable housing in Bhutan. Cities, 162, 105887. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2025.105887
Zhang, G., Yuan, X., Zhou, C., & Jin, W. (2025). From “access to housing” to “access to decent housing”: A systematic literature review of China’s housing security system. Cities, 162, 105921. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2025.105921
Zhang, J., Liu, Z., Guan, Z., Wang, L., Zhang, J., & Han, Z. (2025). Balancing future urban development and carbon sequestration: A multi-scenario InVEST model analysis of China’s urban clusters. Journal of Environmental Management, 380, 125003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125003
Zhang, X., Liu, Z., Walker, T. R., Wilson, J., Tao, X., Dong, H., & Zhao, W. (2025). Impact of political incentives on urban green development: An analysis of 284 cities in China. Cities, 161, 105891. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2025.105891
 
دانش شهرسازی
دوره 10، شماره 2
تیر 1405
صفحه 1-22

فایل ها

سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 08 اردیبهشت 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 17 آذر 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 15 خرداد 1405

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار